Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Roxie: A true story?

The whole story is about a potential looming doom which we find ourselves in the midst of in real life:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis
99942 Apophis (pronounced /əˈpɒfɪs/, previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a small probability (up to 2.7%) that it would strike the Earth in 2029. Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However, a possibility remains that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a gravitational keyhole, a precise region in space no more than about 600 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006. It broke the record for the highest level on the Torino Scale, being, for only a short time, a level 4, before it was lowered.[5]

Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the keyhole would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006 Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 on the Torino Scale. As of April 16, 2008, the impact probability for April 13, 2036, is calculated as 1 in 45,000.

The close approach in 2029 will substantially alter the object's orbit, making predictions uncertain without more data.

...

NASA initially estimated the energy that Apophis would have released if it struck Earth as the equivalent of 1,480 megatons of TNT. A later, more refined NASA estimate was 880 megatons.[2] The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or caused the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 3–10 megaton range[16] The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.

Explanation of those events:
Krakatoa was a gigantic volcanic eruption, The barringer crater is a 1500m wide crater caused by a 50m rock 50000 years ago. It was at its max, 148 times weaker in energy and the rock is 7 times smaller. So, in the case that size is linear to crater size (which I doubt and expect it to be more likely exponential of some sort) we are talking about a crater 7 times bigger, or 10500m wide which is about 35000 ft, or basically 7 miles wide. Sounds like a party to me.

We see how in this story, how in a short 5 year period or so, the odds went from 1:6000 to 1:9. This is a factor of about (oh this is good, just calculated it and) 666 times greater likelihood. If we apply that to today's REAL chance. 1:45000 goes to 1:67. Would you risk ~10 million lives from initial impact + however many more from the winter that follows on a 1 in 67 chance? Thats a 1.49% chance. Sure, you may say thats low, but is it low enough to risk these kinds of things?

And the most painful thing is that you know an object 1500 ft across is hurdling towards earth and we have no idea if it will make impact until it passes under our satellites in 2029 and we see how our gravity changes it.

But as far as the story itself goes, I thought this story brilliant and creative with serious modern day links and problems. How did it end? Who knows, it doesnt say. It ends before the asteroid hit or misses. Which I personally was dissatisfied with.

3 comments:

  1. I feel like Apophis is a far better name for an apocalyptic asteroid than Shelby. In Egyptian mythology, Apophis was a demon serpent of darkness whom the sun god Ra destroyed with the dawning of each new day. And well, Shelby was Shelby.

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  2. if anyone knows how to post a pdf on here, i have the "asteroid mitigation strategy" article from the Scientific American

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  3. Hmmm, the only way I can think of is find some free file host on the internet and then give us a link they give you.

    I googled and found this:
    http://www.mediafire.com/

    I dunno if its any good or not, ive never used it, but seems like it might work.

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